A Potential Solution to the Canadian Housing Crisis
The Canadian housing market has become increasingly more unaffordable in the last 20 years making it harder and harder for first time home buyers to break into the market. In big cities like Toronto and Vancouver, average homes have cleared a million dollars. The average monthly payment based on the assumptions of a 20% down payment, a 30-year loan term, and a 5% annual interest is over $5000 a month. Given the average wage of $80,000 that is around 80% of income just for mortgage payments alone.
Toronto: Approximately CAD 1,174,000 Average Home - Average Wage $78,000
Vancouver: Approximately CAD 1,348,000 Average Home - Average Wage $82,000
**Now this is not directly tied to personal finance, but I have been thinking about this and it's my blog, so I will write about what I want.**
Wages are not keeping pace with housing causing an economic migration as people move to more affordable cities in hopes of affordability. Cities like Calgary and Edmonton (where I reside) have seen a large influx of newcomers.
Now Edmonton is great with its festivals and the river valley, but just like everywhere else there are a limited number of homes. This is causing the housing market to rise faster than otherwise not moving people around is not actually addressing the real issue. We need more houses. According to a report by Scotiabank Economics, Canada is short 1.8 million homes.
Now we could mass produce houses like in war time “wartime houses” to meet the need, which is a good idea, but there is a better, more dramatic idea to fix a few issues of living so far north while helping to solve the housing crisis. This could apply anywhere in Canada but I believe it would be more impactful the further north it is built.
Edmonton is the most northern city in Canada with a population greater than a million at a latitude of 53.5461° N. It's so far north that the sun goes down at 10pm during the summer and the sun goes down at 4:30pm during the winter. Most people know Toronto and it is 1,800 km (1,118 miles) further south than Edmonton. Edmonton only has 3 months where the average temperature is above 20°C (68°F). In winter there can be weeks of - 40°C making it difficult to travel or even leave the house. It gets dark so soon in winter that seasonal depression is frequent in Edmontonians. Loneliness is common since people don't bump into each other when it's so cold and dark.
So what could help fix the housing crisis? An Arcology. Imagine a 60 story building with 100,000 inhabitants, taking up 600 acres. It would have underground parking, then commercial space, then office space, then retail and then residential units that have views of outdoors and a beautiful botanical garden indoors. Throughout the building are green spaces with plants and trees fostering harmonious living with nature. Everything is walkable, with no cars or trucks in sight. Walk to work, grocery story, church, friends, family, park, rec center, everywhere. Residential units are affordable ($250,000) since they are mass produced, subsidized by the city, businesses within and supported by tourism.
Arcology
Arcology is a giant massive building the size of a city invented by Paolo Soleri in 1969 designed to be more sustainable, integrated, and ecological. Where you can live, work and have fun all under the same room with homes, businesses, rec centers, movie theaters, restaurants and everything else that a city needs. All walkable, interconnected, temperature controlled, insect free and most important, affordable. Saudi Arabia is building an Arcology called The Wall that was originally to be 170 kilometers long (106.6 miles) and to be completed in 2030, but they are quite rare around the world.
Edmonton’s Potential
Edmonton is already known for having a super large mall which attracts tourism. When I first came to Alberta the first place I went was to West Edmonton Mall, even before going to the mountains. Edmonton presents some significant opportunities, especially in terms of land availability, economic resources, and potential for innovation. The climate is cold, making it ripe for seasonal depression and isolation. An Arcology would facilitate relationships by creating a close-knit community within a self-contained, sustainable structure. It would offer residents ample opportunities for social interaction, access to green spaces, and protection from harsh weather conditions. This could transform Edmonton into a pioneering example of innovative urban living.
Cost
According to ChatGPT the cost of building such a structure would cost between $15 billion and $30 billion. Edmonton has an operating budget of 3 billion and a capital budget of 1.6 billion. So a bit short. Now the businesses that inhabit the building would pay for their own units, which would shave on those costs. ChatGPT estimates around $3.125 billion to $6.25 billion for the grocery store, office space, pizza joints etc. The residential units would also be purchased by the residents which would shave off some more. ChatGPT estimates 7.5 billion for 30,000 residential units or $250,000 on average. The federal government has contributed over $1 billion toward building of LRTs in Edmonton just between Valley Line West and Metro Line Northwest, so it can be assumed the federal government would contribute at least $1 billion towards such an innovative and landmark structure.
Potential Future Savings
No Roads
Lack of roads means the budget spent on maintaining roads can be saved or spent on maintaining the structure. There are around 170 police officers per 100,000 people and without roads police will have less need for vehicles which will cut costs. Clearing snow costs Edmonton $65 million a year, which is around $6 million a year for 100,000 people.
Vacation Budget
Millions of Canadians fly to Mexico or the tropics every year to escape the cold. With tropical living right outside your balcony the desire to spend $2000 - $5000 on a tropical vacation would decrease. You can sit back and enjoy the sun year round, while ordering in pina coladas all within walking distance. This would keep millions of dollars from flying south each year propping up the local economy.
Energy Efficient
Heating and Cooling
Edmonton is cold and heating individual homes is inefficient. Most homes are heated with natural gas which isn’t the worst but still contributes to climate change. Arcologies can have a variety of heating options which don’t have carbon dioxide as a waste product. Sharing walls saves on heating and cooling since lost heat and cold dissipates into adjacent units. A sphere shape is the most energy efficient shape looking at the volume to surface area ratio.
Water Management
Gray water can be collected and recycled. Rain water collected to reduce water consumption. Living closer reduces the amount of physical material needed for sewers, waste water and fresh water.
Electricity Loss
When electricity is transmitted over long distances through high-voltage lines, some energy is lost as heat due to the resistance of the conductors. The distance between power generation and needs are greatly reduced in an Arcology. Solar panels can be installed directly on the building and power generation can be built nearby. With distance between homes reduced to a minimum energy loss is reduced to a minimum.
Potential Benefits
Tourism
Being the first Arcology in North America let alone Canada it would be a big tourist attraction. West Edmonton Mall attracts around 30 million visitors annually. If this Arcology could attract 5 or 10 million at around $150 to $200 per visit, that would be around 1.5 to 4 billion directly and 4 to 8 billion indirectly. Indirectly meaning spending at other businesses outside of this megastructure.
Happiness/Community
Being able to visit family and friends within minutes all from walking distance lowering the barrier to visit. Viewing the hassle of packing up the family in the van and driving across town 20 - 30 minutes only to do it again in a few years will be eliminated. Simply walk out the door, down the hall to your family/friends or to a speed walker (like in the airports) if they are across the building (Maybe add in an elevator trip or two).
Community closeness is highly correlated to physical proximity. Studies show that living physically close can produce tighter community ties. It increases the likelihood of social interactions for spontaneous encounters. Having a shared space like a park on each floor gives a nice neutral area to build relationships.
Society has never been so lonely with the rise of social media. We are more connected than ever, yet friendships are at an all time low. Having face to face communication is crucial for building strong, long lasting relationships.
Living close can have some drawbacks like privacy concerns and social tension when living quarters are on top of each other. Having proper sound proofing and public spaces to promote health community interaction is key.
Work Commute
Long work commutes have been studied heavily and living in an Arcology can reduce or practically eliminate commute times to work. Imagine never being stuck in traffic ever again. Vehicles take up huge amounts of space (especially Edmonton large trucks) and they only hold 1 person most times in traffic. Moving people on foot can fit more people through an area more efficiently. Lower commute times means more time with family, less time sitting and less stress being stuck in traffic. Walking is great for health and well being and promotes happiness and reduced stress. You can even talk with your fellow travelers while on your walk to work vs the current sound bubble we travel in.
Safety and Security
With limited space and cameras in public spaces, committing a crime will become quite difficult without a trail of evidence. This may be a concern for individuals worried about privacy, but with today's cameras at most traffic lights privacy is already being eroded. There would be no dark alleys for crimes to be committed and if a crime is committed there would be video evidence.
Green Space
Being able to see green plants and go for nature walks year round is proven to increase happiness and well being. Plants clean the air while contributing to the beauty of the building. Green walls, roofs, and botanical gardens throughout the structure help to surround individuals in more nature then they would normally be exposed to.
Health
Making everything walkable increases the amount that people walk which has a direct relationship with health. Walking is a proven way for weight loss and living longer with communities that walk more, having better BMI and longer life expectancy. With everyone walking, stress from traffic and noise pollution would be greatly reduced. We would be forced to interact more closely when someone cuts us off walking vs just honking angrily in the safety of our vehicle.
Environmental Benefits
Megastructures can use environmentally friendly building materials and practices which would greatly reduce the environmental footprint of those that live there. Houses are still roughly built the same way we have been doing it for over 100 years. Building them on site, called stick-built construction. It is long and arduous, full of inefficiencies. Building one big structure would eliminate much of the waste of stick-build construction.
No Snow and Cold
Edmonton is cold with snow occurring in up to 6 months of the year. An Arcology would eliminate shoveling snow for everyone living within it. If you never wanted to leave the building in winter, that would be an option. Interested in nature, just a simple walk outside to the beautiful snowy weather.
Potential Drawbacks
Lack of Nature
Humans need two hours a week minimum of nature for health and well-being. It seems like this would be an issue living in a ginormous indoor concrete building. But I would argue that living in an Arcology would actually increase the amount of nature interaction especially in the winter months. With indoor climate controlled environments, plants can flourish.
What originally inspired me about having an Arcology in Edmonton is the Muttart Conservatory. Year round you can visit lush plant life regardless of the weather. There are paths throughout making it walkable so you can experience arid, temperate, and tropical climates.
Now imagine you wake up in the morning, stretch, then open the patio door to a beautiful tropical 31°C. You hear a waterfall and water flowing down a stream. You see plant life throughout the Botanical Atrium and people hiking the many paths. Nature is always a few steps away. No getting in your car driving to nature. Convenient and year round. Not waiting for the few months of summer to appreciate nature.
This is not hypothetical, this exists in Singapore called Cloud Forest. It features a descending circular path down the mountain which crosses underneath the 35-meter (115 ft) waterfall multiple times. (See photo below)
Now if you still want the real deal you can always go outside to experience nature in its truest form. Arcology helps to preserve nature by concentrating large populations in a small footprint, to reduce urban sprawl and preserve surrounding natural landscapes. This means more nature for everyone to enjoy while minimizing human impact on the environment, allowing ecosystems to thrive and reducing our ecological footprint.
Loss of Yard
A part of the American dream is a house with a white picket fence, two kids and a dog. It's every family's dream and it traditionally is in the suburbs. Living in a giant condo hardly fills that dream. Kids need space to run around and play. Having a pet in a condo can be quite inconvenient having to go down to ground level each time for walks and bathroom breaks.
Luckily Acology’s can have grass patios for families and pet owners making the switch from a single detached home to a sprawling condo a bit less jarring. Indoor parks can be installed on each floor making it a short walk for every child to have recreational spaces. This provides convenient access to play areas but also enhances the overall quality of life for residents. By integrating indoor parks throughout the arcology, children can enjoy a safer play area where they can get physical activity and receive social interaction. The best part is the parks can be fully utilized year round unlike traditional parks. Traditional parks can still be built close by outside or on a rooftop for those wanting fresh air in nice weather.
Not Enough Space
Condo units are stereotypically tiny, especially in expensive large cities like Toronto and Vancouver at around 500 - 700 square feet. Condo units don’t have to be small, they can literally be any size we build them. They can be a typical 1600 square foot single family home 2 storey unit in the sky. With 2, 3, 4 or 5 bedrooms and equally as many bathrooms. You can have a small 1 bedroom bachelor unit or a 6 bedroom super unit, fit to meet the needs of the consumer.
Impact to HomeBuilder and Developers
Developers and home builders are critical to any city that wishes to grow. An Arcology would in theory, threaten the livelihood of those in traditional neighborhoods and home construction. But complete control does not need to live within the City or developer of the Arcology. Some sections of the building could have different themes or architecture guidelines set out by a developer assigned to that section. Some individual units could even be left unfinished so that customers can still work with builders to customize their living arrangement. There are many pros and cons to this strategy but leaving the door open might lead to a lessened dent to the livelihood of those in traditional construction.
Lack of a Garage
North America loves their large vehicles which come along with large garages. Lots of condos have no parking or limited parking spots for occupants. The parking can be tight and limited to vehicles only. This can be a huge deterrent for outdoor enthusiasts who have lots of toys and vehicles. Luckily garages don’t have to only exist for traditional homes they can be included in Arcology giving space for tools, vehicles and whatever hobby you may want to do in your garage workspace.
Garages could be underground or simply adjacent to the Arcology in a parking garage. Cars and trucks are still integral to society and a symbol of freedom so having room and access to them will be crucial to convincing consumers to move to Arcology. Those living in the building would have less need for a vehicle and could utilize ride sharing or car rentals.
Emergency Situations
In the event of a fire, flood or other major disaster, evacuating the building might be difficult. Living units could be built with firewalls and sprinklers installed to reduce the spread of fire. The building would need to be built with overly strong supports and redundancy so if there was an event, the structure would still stand. When thousands of lives and billions of dollars are at stake, safe keeping of the physical structure is of the utmost importance. Arcology can theoretically last for generations, potentially over a century in ideal circumstances.
Picking up Groceries
Living in a world where vehicles are optional, you may have questions as to how you could get groceries home. Do you get a little cart and cart it all the way home? Well you could or you could use a micro elevator. Place your groceries into a tiny elevator and have it transported right to your apartment.
Potential Innovation
Micro Elevator
The delivery service industry (mail, food, packages) is estimated to be $213.45 million annually according to ChatGPT. This whole industry could be disrupted with micro elevators in every unit of the Arcology. The MULTI elevator system developed by ThyssenKrupp that can move both vertically and horizontally. Imagine an elevator the size of a microwave in your unit that can deliver anything you can fit into it to any other unit on the property (anyone connected to the service technically). You want to order Chinese for dinner, it simply arrives a few minutes later right to your home. Simply open the micro elevator and enjoy. Ordered some new pants from your favorite store and don’t need to try them on first. Have them delivered. All mail, packages, and food delivery systems would be obsolete saving millions per year. No more lost packages, no more porch pirates. Large packages would still need to be transported by hand by the UPS, Purolators, Fedex’s, therefore not completely eliminating the delivery services.
Cost is estimated to be $790 million - $1.59 billion according to ChatGPT. The cost could be baked into condo fees or be added to every shipment at around $1 to $2. I have not seen this combination online, I like the name Micro Elevator. Maybe Microvator for short. This technology being designed into an Arcology would be a driving factor in motivating potential investment and for buyers of the individual units.
Edmonton’s Megastructure
Building a megastructure is a bit overkill, but would provide much housing while lifting up Edmonton's tourism and status as the capital city of Alberta. The housing crisis in Canada will not get any better until more affordable units are built. Embracing the concept of an Arcology in Edmonton presents a visionary solution to this crisis. By consolidating 100,000 residents and businesses into a single, sustainable megastructure, we can address housing shortages, reduce urban sprawl, and foster a sense of community while minimizing our environmental footprint. Edmonton's cold climate and existing infrastructure make it an ideal location to pioneer this innovative approach. The Arcology would not only provide affordable housing and commercial spaces but also enhance the quality of life through integrated green spaces and advanced technologies. As we look to the future, investing in such bold and transformative projects could redefine urban living, offering a sustainable and harmonious way of life that meets the needs of both people and the planet. Although extremely unlikely to ever occur, building an Arcology in Edmonton would fulfill my dream of living in a mall and also lead the way in creating a brighter, more sustainable future for those lucky enough to live there.
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